The End Game - By JP_Rocks
With the season winding down over the next few weeks, there are some very tough decisions to be made, all of which come down to where you sit on the ladder. Those at the top have the luxury of being able to plan for the future while those in a more precarious position need to think about mortgaging the future to give themselves the best chance to win now.
All leagues will start their post-season play in either week 12 or 13, with the grand final following a week later. This means that all of you have either 2 or 3 weeks to help determine the fate of the rest of your season, because you have to be in it to win it- there are definitely no prizes for fifth place. Or first place for that matter, unless you are like me and your priorities are so warped that winning your online fantasy rugby competition is currently the most important thing in your life. Either way, here is some advice on how to finish as strong as possible based on where your team is at the moment:
Runaway Leader- You most likely got Nick Evans in the first round, managed to luck your way into Bismark DuPlessis and Fetu’u Vainikolo late in the draft, and picked up Tonderai Chavanga the week before his breakout performance against the Reds. To sum up, you are the New England Patriots of your league, and everybody hates you. But you can live with this because you are locked into a semi final spot, and have scored far and away the most points in the competition. But to avoid fulfilling that Patriots parallel and falling at the final hurdle, you should take a look at your team and identify your weak spots. Are your forwards as good as they might be? Are all your players getting a full game, or are some getting subbed off after 50 or 60 minutes? Fantasy football is a law of averages, and you need to make sure your team doesn’t regress towards the mean at the worst possible time. The recommended approach would be to take one of your many superstars and trade him for two or more solid players who are playing weak teams in rounds 13 and 14.
Comfortably Placed in Top 4- You’re sitting with 6 or 7 wins at the moment, and probably only need to win half of your remaining games to make the finals. There should be two points of focus in this situation: who does it look like you are going to play in the finals, and how does your team look against them over those two weeks. See what match-ups your players have in the finals weeks, and if they look tough, see if you can trade them for someone playing weaker teams over those weeks. Also, if you can target likely semifinal opponents and try to weaken them while you strengthen your own team, all the better.
Stuck in a Log Jam- You and two or three other teams are sitting on 5 wins for the year, with only bonus points separating you on the log. This is an all or nothing position to be in, you either need to put all your efforts towards the finals (as detailed above) and hope that you sneak in, or alternatively place all your focus on winning the remaining regular season games. This is most applicable if you have any games left against others mired in the logjam, which in this case become your target games. If you take this approach, you need to ensure that you win these at all costs, so you need to examine the team match-ups and identify the likely superstars over that weekend and then do everything you can to get those teams. As stated above, this is a gamblers situation, and you need to decide which option gives you the best odds of taking the crown- sitting with your team as is and maybe missing the finals, or doing everything it takes to get there even if it hurts your chances once you do.
Needing the Rub of the Green- Its time to get desperate. You’re about 6th or 7th on the ladder, and need to win all of your remaining games just to get to the semis, so you need to do everything that you can that will help you win now. If you are sitting on an injured superstar, like Dan Carter or Matt Giteau, or have quality players from any teams with byes remaining, trade them for players that can help you now. There is no point waiting for them to get back, because one more loss will end your season. Target a team that has their semifinal place secured as they will be able to carry them until the finals, but make sure you don’t just give them away. Even if the strategy doesn’t pay off, it much more honorable to go out with a bang than with a whimper.
On the Outside Looking In- Your draft probably included the names Julian Huxley, Francois Steyn, Berrick Barnes, Isa Nacewa and Jerry Collins, all of whom have either had woeful years or have missed significant times with injury. Just chalk it up to experience, and try to console yourself with the idea that there is no skill in this damn luck based game. You’ll be wrong in thinking that, but that’s your business, not ours.
That just about wraps it up, check back here next week for more musings on our little world of fantasy rugby.
Other news...
Monday, 17 March 2008Stephen Brett Breaks Shoulder, Hearts of Fantasy Owners - By JP_Rocks
There was only one thing that owners of Stephen Brett were saying on Saturday night, and it sure as heck wasn’t “giggity giggity goo”. Brett was helped off early during the Crusaders win over the Cheetahs with a suspected dislocated shoulder, and unfortunately, those suspicions turned out to be accurate. The early prognosis is that he will miss 4 to 6 weeks, which provides a bit of a quandary for his fantasy owners. If they are in good shape at the moment, they may try and stick out the rest of the season with Brett on the bench in the hopes that he will be able to return in time for the fantasy playoffs. However, if Brett was one of the only players keeping your fantasy team above water, or even worse, if you are currently drowning in your league, you may need to try and trade him now for some short term help. Obviously, you will struggle to get more than 50 cents on the dollar for him, but if you can get a solid player that has underperformed so far, such as Lote Tuqiri or Drew Mitchell, or pick up an unproven player who has shown potential, such as Peter Playford or Tonderai Chavanga, they may provide enough offence to get you to the semis where you then get to lament having given up on Brett.
Monday, 10 March 2008Its Dan's world, everyone else just lives in it - By Kenobi
Any Dan Carter owners whinging about his sub par 10 point round (8 in general play and 2 off the boot) should spare a thought for owners of Ma'a Nonu who's -8 performance caused by his lack of discipline (and sudden loss of motor skills), dug a hole too big for many teams to claw their way out of, but that comes with the territory with players like Nonu, Some weeks he is unstoppable and some times you get to see the side of Ma'a that keeps him out of All Black contention.
Tuesday, 4 March 2008Navigating the bye weeks - by Kenobi
The ultimate rugby season aint a sprit... its a marathon, and its often the middle rounds that make the difference between qualifying for the finals and an early exit. The best owners will already be looking ahead to the bye weeks and planning on how they are going to field a team while their best players enjoy a well deserved week off.
Tuesday, 26 February 2008Sportsighted Stockmarket by JP_Rocks
Well, its two weeks into the season, and at least a couple of you are looking at your teams wondering what the hell went wrong. A workmate of mine is a perfect case of this: he is a genuine rugby fan and knows a bit about it, had all the ins and outs of the sportsighted.com competition explained to him, and he hand picked his team during the draft. To top it off, he took at least three or four players that I had lined up on my wish list and would have taken in either the same or the next round that he picked them in.
Sunday, 24 February 2008You asked for it: Improved trades
With a vastly improved trades system including notifications and trading history, as well as the ability to chat with your league opponents through the fixtures page, you may well have noticed a number of technology enhancements this week on Sportsighted.com.
Wednesday, 20 February 2008ELV’s: Rugby’s Savior or an Offensive Term for Little People?
Now that round one is finished, we can all start talking about the experimental law variations (ELVs) and their effect on the game with a little experience under our belts. The sports media outlets have regaled us with tales of try feasts in pre-season games and statistics showing that the ball was in play up to 30% more compared to games played under the standard laws of the games. Those sources tried to imply that the reason for the try feasts was all this extra time the players had at their disposal, and that these new laws, while still not perfect around the contentious tackle area, were going to improve the product of rugby far beyond what we have become accustomed to over the last few years.
Thursday, 14 February 2008Post Draft Bargains
So you're draft is over and you're happy with your squad, but feel like you need something extra? the post drat ritual of picking through the left overs for the "Next Big Star" often separates the champion fantasy teams from the also rans. Check out our list of unknown potential stars for this year that you may have never heard of but are probably available to strengthen your bench.
Monday, 11 February 2008Average England Hold On
England managed to notch up a win this morning over a willing, committed, but ultimately outclassed Italian team. The final score of 23-19 was a little misleading as the English spent most of the game in control of the result, but without total control over how they were going to get there.
Monday, 4 February 2008Six Nations fantasy leaders
James Hook starred for the Dragons picking up 26.5 fantasy points and leads the league after round 1:
Tuesday, 22 January 2008Sitting, Waiting, Wishing for Super 14
Its been a long time since the rugby season ended last year. I know that because my group of mates and I are having to come up with more and more convoluted ways to entertain ourselves. At the end of footy season, you suddenly have to start making plans to see your mates which don't simply entail "come round and watch the game tonight, we'll have a few beers, and end up doing some drunk wrestling moves in the back yard".