Sportsighted Stockmarket by JP_Rocks

Ritchie McCaw Warming Up in Marseille (RWC 2007)

Well, its two weeks into the season, and at least a couple of you are looking at your teams wondering what the hell went wrong. A workmate of mine is a perfect case of this: he is a genuine rugby fan and knows a bit about it, had all the ins and outs of the sportsighted.com competition explained to him, and he hand picked his team during the draft. To top it off, he took at least three or four players that I had lined up on my wish list and would have taken in either the same or the next round that he picked them in.

Week One, he had a narrow loss, which one could easily put down to the fact that he named Frederick Michalak in his team, who was was a late withdrawal, and had dubbed Francois Steyn as his kicker when Ruan Pienaar turned out to be the first choice goal kicker for the Sharks. In week two, however, he got mauled 98-0. Yep, you read that right, his team failed to register a single point, or to be more accurate, for every point his team registered, they registered a negative point. 18 lost turnovers, 4 lost lineouts and 3 conceded penalties cancelled out all the positive things his team managed to accomplish.

Ours is a ten person league, which means that he can probably only afford to lose two more games the rest of the season if he wants to make the semi finals. In other words, he is desperate, as many of the other two loss owners are after two weeks. With that in mind, here is a list of players that owners may want to look to involve in trades as they try to turn the corner from heartbreaking losses to gloat inducing wins.

Sell High

If you have any of these players on your team, now my be a good time to trade them as they are likely to be overvalued at present:

Fetu'u Vainikolo: Vainikolo has been an absolute beast so far as he racked up 32 points in his first two games, which is made more impressive by the fact that his total includes only one try. He's scored 9 beaten defenders (BD) and 14 10m gains after breaks (10mG), and is far and away the most valuable player of the tournament aside from Daniel Carter and Nick Evans. There is a slight risk with trading Vainikolo now, because last years stats showed that winger's most consistent scoring plays were BD and 10mG, so if he keeps it up after you trade him you may need to get used to throwing up in your mouth every Monday morning. However, he is unproven and plays on a poor team, so history suggests he will start to fade soon.

Ritchie McCaw: Big names like McCaw are generally over-valued in fantasy sports games to begin with, but he has served his owners well so far this season scoring 31 points over the first two weeks. However, a quick look at his stat breakdown shows that almost half of his points have come from tries and assists, which is a very variable stat, especially for forwards, so expect his numbers to start to tail off, especially once the Crusaders start playing against real rugby teams in the second half of the season.

Kurtis Haiu: Haiu was tipped to be a big fantasy player in his rookie season by my fellow sportsighted journalist Kenobi, and he has delivered in the first two weeks with a more than solid 26 points to date. However, like McCaw, this included 15 points from tries and assists, and despite the fact that he is the only true lock in the Blues team, he has had only 5 lineout wins for the season. Also, there are some concerns after the stupid off the ball quasi spear tackle he was sin binned for over the weekend, so if you could get a well disciplined forward who wins a lot of lineouts, such as Bismark DuPlessis, in return for Haiu, that would be a coup.

John Roe: Again, like McCaw and Haiu, Roe has scored 25 points with 15 of them coming from tries or assists. Unlike McCaw and Haiu, Roe plays for a pretty bad team, so these tries are almost certain to start drying up, and with genuine lineout options like James Horwill, Van Humphries and Hugh McMeniman, I really cant imagine how Roe will continue to score half his current average moving forward.

Buy Low:

These players are likely undervalued at present due to a poor opening two weeks, so see if you can fleece, err, trade with an opponent to get them in your squad at a reduced price.

Stephen Brett: Brett was the superstar of last year's fantasy Air NZ Cup, and has had a very slow start by his standards scoring -2 points in the first game and 13 last week. Week one will soon become a distant memory, but before it does, if you can get Brett onto your team in a trade that doesn't involve anyone called Carter, Evans or your goal kicker, you should do it in a heartbeat.

Casey Laulala: With an underwhelming total of -1 points over the first two weeks, owners of Laulala may be close to outright dropping him from their teams. Laulala is a big, strong runner, and with skilled players like Carter, Brett and MacDonald around him, will inevitably start to find gaps in the defense and finish backline moves, which is where the big points are. If you can get him off the players list, or trade him for a mid level player like Benson Stanley, Cullum Bruce, Daniel Bowden or Tane Tuipolutu, you will be Laulaughing all the way to the bank.

Isaia Toeava: It may be a bit much listing Toeava as a buy low when he scored 19 points last weekend, but like Brett, owners may still be a little stung by his 0 point outing in week one. The most impressive part of his 19 points was 14 of those points were generated by BD and 10mG. Its worth noting that Toeava was the highest scoring non-goal kicking player of last years super 14, as he scored double digit points in nine of the twelve games he played in. Once again, if you can get Toeava without having to give up Carter, Evans or your goal kicker, do it.

The old adage of "he who laughs last laughs best" is very appropriate when it comes to fantasy sports trades. No trade is going to happen unless both sides think they are getting the best of the deal. With that in mind, consider the players listed above, but also go out and look for the diamonds in the rough sitting on your opponents teams, and try to trade them for the cubic zirconium sitting in your team. If you have any questions, or want opinion on prospective trades or your weekly lineup, send it through to info@sportsighted.com, and we'll post your question and our recommendations later in the week.